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Server Time: 3/17/2010 7:57:50 PM PACIFIC |
 Question for Mike Caro, Mike Quealy, 13. Feb 2003 06:06 | ||
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| In a televised No Limit Hold'em tournament, I watched Phil Helmuth play an unraised pot with John Shoreman and three other players. Helmuth was the Small Blind and Shoreman was the Big Blind. The flop brought three diamonds and Helmuth checked. John led out for $500 (a huge bet as the pot only stood at $250). It was folded all the way around to Phil who moved all-in. John now had to call for value as the pot was laying him massive odds. John held the bare Ace of Diamonds and Phil held a 7 high Flush. However the river brought another Diamond and busted Phil. My question is this: SHOULD PHIL HAVE MOVED ALL-IN WHEN HE KNOWS JOHN MUST CALL FOR POT ODDS? (By the way, Phil claimed to know exactly what John held...ie: the draw to a bigger flush.) Obviously in a ring game, Helmuth's play was sound but was it correct tournament strategy? Consider the following possibility: Helmuth calls the $500 bet on the flop. If the turn brings a blank, he now moves all-in from first position. As there is only one card left to come, John is no longer getting the pot odds to call. If the turn brings a fourth diamond, Helmuth must curse his luck and fold. I interpret the situation as follows: Phil cannot prevent John from seeing the turn card (if he calls John'ss $500 bet, the action ends and the turn is revealed; if he raises, John must call because he is getting the correct odds to do so). However, Phil can prevent John from seeing the river. He can do this by just calling on the flop and then leading at the turn (assuming the turn brings a blank). If Phil plays it like this, John must pass on the turn as the pot odds are no longer in his favour. By playing it like this, Phil is only giving John one card to draw out on him rather than two, therefore halfing his own chances of going bust. Obviously the pot he would win playing it this way would be smaller, but his chances of winning the pot would increase from him being a 2:1 favourite to him being a 4:1 favourite. What are your thoughts? Did Helmuth make the correct TOURNAMENT play? Even if you don't agree with my argument, does it make any sense to you whatsoever? | ||
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| Re: Question for Mike Caro, stdioh, 13. Feb 2003 07:52 | ||
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| Giving a free card to a draw is never a good idea...well, most often not anyway and I don't think so here. If Phil is *SURE* that his opponent is holding the draw to the nut straight, then his made hand is really good. For one thing, he's using up two of the diamonds in the deck, taking two outs away from his opponent. This may not sound significant, but if you think about it, the odds really do get skewed. Knowing how many extra cards of a suit are in or out of a deck can be huge. Here's an example from my session this morning. The incompetent dealer at my casino flashed 4 (that's right four) cards while dealing. They were Jd, As, 8s, Ks. I was dealt Js4s. All of a suddent this folding hand became a limping hand as the flashed cards at this casino get reshuffled into the undealt portion of the deck. My odds of hitting a flush were great and my jack had become a lot better. Now the flop came with one spade, different from the flashed cards. All of a sudden my runner runner flush against opponets who seemed to be without great hands was ok to call for. Especially since I knew that my jack was the second nuts or better if I did make a flush. Turn was the ace of spades and I now had an ubergood flush draw. I made my flush on the river as one of my opponents made his straight. He checkraised and I called (having not seen the queen and not wanting to push my luck too much). Without taking known cards into account, I was playing like a huge fish, but when the known cards were added to the deck, my play made sense. To sum up, Phil knows that he holds two of his opponents outs, so he really can't allow him a chance to catch up without paying for it. | ||
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