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Server Time: 2/10/2012 9:38:02 PM PACIFIC |
 what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, whiskeytown, 4. Feb 2003 12:06 | ||
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| Just a quick stat. question...a detailed explaination of how someone reasons this out would be super. We know from Mike's website that you'll get AA only 1-210 times at a table. The same goes for KK, of course. What are the odds on say, a 9 or 10 handed table, of a player like us getting KK and end up playing against AA on the same hand. This is preflop of course, and in NL, probably the kind of hand where ALL the chips go in the middle of the pot...LOL I've just felt it's been happening a lot lately to me. Statistically, it's within reason to happen every few games, esp. in a tourney. Just curious how many times I'll see it when I get KK. rb -------- "I'm like a wino with a twenty dollar bill, yeah for ever and eternally yours" - Bill Mallonee | ||
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| Re: what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, Mano, 4. Feb 2003 12:14 | ||
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| So, do you want the probability that on a given hand someone is dealt AA's and someone is dealt KK's, or the probability that on a hand which you are dealt KK's one of the other players has AA's. Makes a big difference, as the second (conditional) probability is a great deal larger than the first. | ||
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| Re: what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, whiskeytown, 4. Feb 2003 13:05 | ||
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| I want the odds of someone having AA when I have KK.... if it's the other way around, I'm not worried...LOL...just how often I'm gonna be an underdog to AA - AK is bad too, but I'm more scared of AA RB ---------------- I'm like a wino with a twenty dollar bill, forever and eternally yours. - Bill Mallonee | ||
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| Re: what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, P. Liem, 4. Feb 2003 14:08 | ||
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| Hey, The odds of getting a *particular* pair are 6:1326, i.e. 1:221. So, if you've got K-K, the odds of some other player having A-A are 1*(the number of other players):221, ten players including you, then the odds are 9:221 that someone has A-A. Peter. | ||
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| Re: what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, Andrew Wells, 4. Feb 2003 15:49 | ||
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| It should be a little less than 9:221 since two kings are already accounted for. | ||
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| Re: what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, whiskeytown, 4. Feb 2003 17:24 | ||
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| That makes so much sense. I used to do Calc. in high school, but statistics have always been a little shakey for me...(like is 1 in 4 a 25% chance or 20% chance - crap like that) so if we do the math on a 9 person tourney table...if I get KK odds are approx. (taking into account Andy's comment that there are two less cards in the deck) 8/221 = 1 in 27.65 Not bad odds....brutal when it happens but not bad BUT THEN AS LONG AS i'M GOING TO TRY TO PLAY JJ VS QQ IN THE BUBBLE SPOT BEFORE THE MONEY, WHAT THE HELL DO I EVEN CARE IF I'M UP AGAINST A'S...AND HE FLOPPED QUADS - ARGHGHGHG...WHAT DO I PLAY FOR!!!@#@#!@#!@# sorry...that was a theraputic release of negative energy...LOL thanks again RB on 4. Feb 2003 14:08 P. Liem wrote: > Hey, > > The odds of getting a *particular* pair are 6:1326, i.e. 1:221. So, if you've got K-K, the > odds of some other player having A-A are 1*(the number of other players):221, ten players > including you, then the odds are 9:221 that someone has A-A. > > Peter. ---------------- I'm like a wino with a twenty dollar bill, forever and eternally yours. - Bill Mallonee | ||
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| Re: what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, Mano, 4. Feb 2003 20:33 | ||
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| Here's a quick approximation: 50 cards left in the deck, so 50*49/2 different 2 card combinations. 6 combinations for AA, so probability of next 2 cards being AA are 12/(50*49) = .0048979 = p, the probability you ARE dealt KK's, which means the probability that you are NOT dealt AAis 1-p = .9951. This is exact for 2 player game - in 10 player game, the odds would be about this for each player NOT to be dealt KK's (approximate, but close), so the probability that none of the remaining 9 players is dealt AA is approximately (1-p)^9 = .95677 and the probability that at least one IS dealt AA would be one minus this, which is .0432 (4.3%) or stated in odds, about 22:1 against. Not nearly as unlikely as many people suppose (about the same odds as someone hitting a 2 outer on the river). | ||
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| Re: what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, Kevin, 4. Feb 2003 22:54 | ||
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| What about having pocket KK and flopping a set when the other guy has AA and flops a set too? What are the odd's? | ||
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| Re: what are the odds of KK and AA on same table, Forrest, 6. Feb 2003 14:09 | ||
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| The correct probabilistic calculation is actually quite complicated. It is not 9/221 as someone else suggested. The situation is very complex because you are sampling without replacement while conditioning on the first hand having KK. However, one can easily simulate this and get good approximate results. Below I've included 3 runs of 500,000 hands with 10 players (1 player gets KK) each for the following situations: 1. at least one other player gets AA 2. at least one other player gets AK 3. at least one other player gets AA or AK The results are as follows: 1. AA given KK and 10 player table 21857/500000 = 0.0437 i.e. 4.37 percent 21810/500000 = 0.0436 21949/500000 = 0.0439 2. AK given KK and 10 player table 28774/500000 = 0.0575 i.e. 5.75 percent 29262/500000 = 0.0585 28966/500000 = 0.0579 3. AA or AK given KK and 10 player table 50891/500000 = 0.1018 i.e. 10.18 percent 50478/500000 = 0.1010 50216/500000 = 0.1004 Of course there is some variation in the different simulation runs (and one might have used more than 500,000 hands ... but I coded it quick and dirty so it isn't exactly optimized for speed, i.e. it's rather slow). However, the variation is actually quite small so you can guesstimate the actual true unknown value with enough precision to be useful. Note that for the AA example 4.37 percent is approximately 1 in 22.8 hands. -------------- Matlab code below (for anyone who wants to double check my results) ----------- % this script simulates dealing 2-10 random hands conditional on the fact % that one of them will receive KK and checks for the prob that at least one % hand will have AA or AK (and is easily modifiable for AA or AK only) clear % to do this we simply make a deck of 50 cards (2 K and 4 of all others) % and deal out 1-9 more hands and check for AA players = 9; % this value could be 1-25 using a standard deck since one KK is already dealt % not including the KK player reps = 500000; index = 1:50; index = index; % 2-10, 11=J, 12=Q, 13=K, 14=A deck = [2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14]; cards = length(deck); tempmat = zeros(reps,players); sumcards = zeros(1,players); % make hands for i = 1:reps temp = randperm(cards); index = temp(1:2*players); hands = deck(index); % add cards for ii = 1:players sumcards(ii) = hands(2*ii-1) + hands(2*ii); end % zero out non AA and AK hands - edit here for AA or AK only index = find(sumcards == 27 | sumcards == 28); tempmat(i,index) = 1; end total = length( find( sum(tempmat')' > 0) ); percent = total/reps | ||
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