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Server Time: 2/13/2012 10:54:06 AM PACIFIC |
 Should I have called?, RamDannyboy, 24. Jan 2003 22:28 | ||
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| I'm working on my hand reading skills, but I wonder if I did the right thing with this hand. MP limps, I raise with KdKh, SB call, BB fold, MP call. 3 players. Flop: Ad 4d Ts MP bet, I raise, SB fold, MP reraise, I call. 2 players. Turn: 3d MP check, I bet, MP call. River: Tc MP bet, I fold. Would you have called? Your comments are appreciated. Thanks | ||
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| Re: Should I have called?, Kevin J, 24. Jan 2003 23:17 | ||
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| Not sure about the raise on the flop. Definitely don't like the bet on the turn. By the time the ten pairs on the river, you need a serious imagination to find a hand that doesn't beat kings. Good fold. | ||
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| Re: Should I have called?, The Fish, 25. Jan 2003 00:59 | ||
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| "MP limps, I raise with KdKh, SB call, BB fold, MP call. 3 players." pot status: 3 1/2 big bets or 7 small bets (assuming it was just the three players who called originally, then called the raise, plus the big blind's blind) - good play up to this point. "Flop: Ad 4d Ts MP bet, I raise, SB fold, MP reraise, I call. 2 players." pot status: (3 1/2 + 2) = 6 1/2 big bets or 13 small bets In my opinion this is where you went wrong. Of course it depends on the kind of player MP is, but I would assume someone UTG is going to most likely have paired the overcard (aces in this case), at least! This is especially true because of your raise pre-flop. This is based solely on the fact that MP came out betting. As for your raise, it is risky, you might be able to justify it by saying: a) it made the third player fold to put you in a heads up situation. b) I am semi-protecting my hand against MP, if he might have been pounding the flush draw. c) MP might be trying to steal the pot, IF MP is the kind of player who would bet UTG in these circumstances attempting to steal the pot. However, the third reason (c) is slightly flawed, again, because of your pre-flop raise. I would even go so far as saying that you calling MP's re-raise was a mistake. You should have mucked it right there. (SIDE NOTE: I do not know MP's playing style, you have a better idea of it, so perhaps I am wrong, I am assuming an average player though) The reason for this is simple. Quick analysis: Best case scenario: MP has Ace with a strong kicker (how else could he/she justify re-raising you?) Most likely scenario: MP has A T in the hole. The reason I believe this to be his/her hand is that after you raised pre-flop and then raised again after the flop with the ace on board, I believe MP probably figured you for Ace with a decent kicker. So to re-raise you on the flop, I suggest MP most likely had 2 pair (Aces and Ts). AK is possible, but I would suggest unlikely, b/c MP did not raise pre-flop. Also, A 4 is possible, but I would suggest highly unlikely, perhaps suited, but again, this depends on how MP plays (is he/she capable of calling with A 4 suited in middle position?) Finally the worst case scenario: would be pocket aces. MP could have been slow playing them because there were not many callers to begin with. However, I believe pocket aces to be highly unlikely because MP probably would have re-raised your raise pre-flop, b/c there were only 3 players remaining after your raise, so if MP was holding AA they would want to get the most in the pot they could. On the flush draw is unlikely, especially if MP is a decent player. Who re-raises on a flush draw with only 2 players in?!? So, I believe A T is MPs hole cards. So, given this information why would I suggest folding after MPs re-raise? Well, basically MP probably put you on aces with a decent kicker, but re-raised you anyway, so MP can beat aces with a decent kicker (I say only decent kicker, b/c a raise from last position does not define a hand too much, especially when there has only been one caller). So at this point, you must figure MP, at very least, has aces with a strong kicker, I would go further and suggest you could probably figure MP for two pair. I wouldn't put trip 4s by MP either. Again, depends on MPs skill, if MP is skillful I would suggest he does not hold pocket 4s because he realizes that there are not enough players in to warrant them, and further pocket 4s from Middle position is a controversial play. He probably doesn't have trip 10s either because I suggest he probably would have raised with them preflop. So anyway, even if all he had was aces at this point you have to look at the situation: pot is at 12 small bets (before you call his re-raise) and you are now heads up, so even if you do catch your king, giving you trips, there is only one player to extract bets from. So the pot is giving you 12 to 1 at this point. Odds of catching your king on the turn: (47-2) = 45:2 = 22.5:1 So you need to be getting 22.5 to 1 from the pot, you are only getting 12 to 1. In my opinion you should have folded right there. Unless I missed something (which is quite possible) the only card that saves you is one of the two kings left in the deck. Unless of course you catch two diamonds in a row, but this is so unlikely it does not elevate your odds enough to even consider. Also, you have to factor in the likelihood of bluffing him on the end if a scary card comes, i.e./ a flush card. But I have a feeling that the likelihood of you bluffing MP (based on their play) is slim to nil. Anyway, it is late, so perhaps this whole post is nonsense, I hope not, especially if you took the time to read it! I hope something I said was of value. Good luck, Ben | ||
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| Re: Should I have called?, FREDSKINS, 25. Jan 2003 03:45 | ||
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| Dont put me at Bens table | ||
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| Re: Should I have called?, Nathaniel Brous, 25. Jan 2003 11:32 | ||
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| I don't have too much to add to what's been said. It is likely you could have check/ called this hand out and found out whether you were good or not for the exact same price. That is what I would have done on this hand. I do think you folded correctly though. I will rarely bet pocket kings with the Ace on the flop. - Nathaniel Brous | ||
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| Re: Should I have called?, RamDannyboy, 26. Jan 2003 17:42 | ||
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| Thanks everyone for your comments. I must admit, I never gave my flop raise much thought. It's just my nature aggressive style. When I got reraised, I know I was in trouble. You have identified a leak in my game. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Should I have called?, Charles Kincy, 27. Jan 2003 01:19 | ||
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| what kind of player is MP? in games 20-40 or below, you can usually count on a flop bet meaning an A w/ decent kicker unless MP is above average or overaggressive. here's how i would've played it... MP is inferior player--fold on the flop. you raised preflop, remember? his bet screams "i have at least an ace". MP is average player--an average player is deceptive just often enough that folding is a mistake. you should raise the flop (isolation), check behind the turn, and call the river. this is the right play if you think you are very far ahead or very far behind but don't know which. MP is an over-aggressive player--play it the way you did, but call the river. sometimes raise the river (for value). MP is an above-average player--consider sometimes raising the river. MP's play doesn't necessarily indicate a strong hand--it depends on the level of the game and how MP vieiws you. i'm not saying you should raise here all the time or even rarely, but you should consider it. | ||
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| Re: Should I have called?, TOM WAGGONER, 30. Jan 2003 00:25 | ||
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| It sounds to me like a simple case of not being able to get away from your big starting hand. Everybody does it at times. I think I would have folded to the reraise on the flop. On the end, you clearly have to fold, cause even if he was betting a ten, he made trips. | ||
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