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Server Time: 10/11/2008 11:23:27 PM PACIFIC |
 Value and Losses *, joe, 17. Jan 2003 12:42 | ||
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| I am confused , if a hand is expected to lose in a situation MORE why doesnt it go down in value? i.e pocket aces in large multiway pot? JOE | ||
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| Re: Value and Losses *, Mike Caro, 17. Jan 2003 13:02 | ||
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| on 17. Jan 2003 12:42 joe wrote: > I am confused , if a hand is expected to lose in a situation MORE why doesnt it > go down in value? i.e pocket aces in large multiway pot? > JOE Hi, Joe -- It's because the object of poker isn't to win pots. In fact, if you wanted to win the most pots, you could just bet and raise to the river every time and you'd be the world champion of winning pots -- while your money lasted. And you would, at the same time, DECREASE more sensible players' chances of winning pots. But those more-sensible players should want you to try to win pots, because they realize that by playing that way, you're losing money, and the money you lose goes somewhere. Specifically, it goes to them. So, they win fewer pots, but they make more money. Same with aces. No callers, you win all the time. One caller, you lose sometimes, but you average more profit. Two callers, you lose even more often, but you typically make more money than you would with just one caller. Only when the number of callers gets large (most likely above five, depending on their nature and other factors) does the value of additional callers chasing your aces begin to go down. Straight Flushes, Mike Caro | ||
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| Re: Value and Losses *, joe, 17. Jan 2003 14:05 | ||
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| Mr.Caro , I have all of your videos (poker seminars and tells) and I understand about not trying to win pots ,but isnt it neccessary to win some pots. What if your aces are against an all in player? What if they see the showdown more than usual? Shouldnt Aces be EXPECTED to win pots? What makes the aces have any value at all? | ||
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| Re: Value and Losses *, Mike Caro, 17. Jan 2003 14:35 | ||
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| on 17. Jan 2003 14:05 joe wrote: > Mr.Caro , I have all of your videos (poker seminars and tells) and I understand about not > trying to win pots ,but isnt it neccessary to win some pots. What if your aces are > against an all in player? What if they see the showdown more than usual? Shouldnt Aces > be EXPECTED to win pots? What makes the aces have any value at all? Hi, Joe -- The value of a pair of aces before the flop is that it expects to win MORE often than any other hand when competing against the same number of players. It also is generally a hand you can play aggressively to win bigger pots when you do survive. Aces can win significantly more than half the time against two opponents -- depending on the situation -- but, remember, it only needs to win about a third of the time to break even. The same concept is true with more opponents (different fractions, though). So, it's taking a huge percentage from opponents, and -- within reason -- the more opponents there are, the more profit aces can expect to make. You raise a good point though about needing to win pots sometimes. If our bankrolls are limited or we're playing at a limit that's uncomfortably large, we might want to sacrifice some of the profit we gain through having more opponents in order to "thin the field" and have a better chance at winning the pot (with slightly reduced profit potential). Straight Flushes, Mike Caro | ||
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| Re: Value and Losses *, noiseboy, 17. Jan 2003 14:44 | ||
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| Well, let's say that you have pocket Aces and the flop comes up all rags that help no one. Then you will win almost all the time, but aren't likely to make much money because everyone will fold. If you have pocket Aces and there are draws and maybe a lower pair up against you, you lose more often when someone hits the turn or river, but when you win you win BIG. So sometimes your winning percentage goes down, but your EV (expected value) goes up for the hand depending on the flop. Gary Carson's book has a good chapter on how you should not value Hold'em hands by their poker value but by their monetary value which become clearer once the flop has hit. | ||
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| Re: Value and Losses *, NiceFella, 18. Jan 2003 23:41 | ||
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| Here's a crude math exercise to demonstrate how pocket AA's win less often against more opponents, yet can be worth more money. AA versus any single random holding will win 85% of the time. Even against a premium holding like KK or AKs, AA wins over 80%. So if, say, you bet $10 before the flop and one opponent calls, you can expect to receive that $20 pot contribution at the end of the hand 85% of the time, for an expectation of $17, a $7 profit. Now suppose you're up against the entire table -- 9 players call your $10 bet. Against all these hands, AA now wins only 31% of the time. You'll drag that total of $100 at the end of the hand 31% of the time for an expectation of $31, a $21 dollar profit. Your chance of winning has decreased dramatically, but your potential payoff has increased far more than enough to compensate. This doesn't take into consideration later rounds of betting, and the process of smart players folding as they realize they can't win, or raising when they realize that they will. But in its basic form you can see how the additional money in the pot more than offsets the additional risk of getting beat. Happy raising, NiceFella | ||
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