|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 8/30/2008 2:51:18 AM PACIFIC |
 Chasing a draw heads-up -- a paradox?, NiceFella, 11. Jan 2003 23:24 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Most poker authors seem to advise not chasing a flush or straight draw heads-up. This is advice I've usually followed. But perhaps I misunderstand, because at the low-limit tables I frequent it seems that chasing a flush or open-ended straight heads up is often profitable. Following the chain of calls and pot odds, however, reveals two different answers, depending on our point of view. Here's the setup: $4/8 game. An early position player opens for $4. I call on the button with oh, say, Ah 8h, and the small blind and big blind call. That makes a pot of $16. The flop comes unpaired with two hearts. The blinds check (looking very unhappy), and the early position player comes out betting. So now here's my decision: call all the way to the river and chase my nut flush heads-up, or fold now. Yes I could try for a free-card raise, but let's not get fancy and just consider the worst case. I'm roughly a 2:1 dog to make the nuts by the river. I'll have to call $12 in bets to make it that far, and there's already $16 in the pot. So I'm deciding to call $12 to win $28. That's better than 2:1, so it seems a profitable decision to call all the way to the river. I understand that the rake will take several dollars, so the call is really close. I understand that close calls like this increase my variance for very low expected value -- but I also think it improves my table image to chase now and then. But the real conundrum arrives on the turn.... Here's where my brain gets stuck on a bit of a paradox. Suppose I call the flop bet, the turn card comes, and it is not the heart I am looking for. Should I stubbornly stick to my plan and continue calling? Here I am calling $8, when the pot contains just $32. (The $16 pre-flop bets, plus two $4 flop bets, plus the $8 turn bet). Now I'm getting 32:8 (4:1) on my call, when I'm about a 5:1 dog to get my flush. I can't rely on implied odds, because I have to assume my opponent is smart enough not to bet if a third heart falls on the river. I guess what I'm saying is that the flop and turn calls considered *together* looked like a good pot odds proposition, but the turn bet considered alone is not. What gives? Typing all this out seems to have given me my own answer (that heads up chasing is a close call and not advised, but a few extra early bets in the pot will make it work). However I still wonder how to philosophically approach the call on the turn -- should I grit my teeth and consider the flop and turn as one continuous call, or reconsider my pot odds at each point? Welcoming your thoughts, NiceFella | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Chasing a draw heads-up -- a paradox?, Dynasty, 12. Jan 2003 02:42 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| The reason most people incorrectly tell you to fold in that spot is that they incorrectly assess the # of outs you truly have. In addition to making a flush, you could also win the hand simply by spiking an Ace (or any pair with a different hand) on the turn or river. You've got an easy call in this hand. BTW, you should be raising on the button with A8s after only one limper ahead of you. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Chasing a draw heads-up -- a paradox?, RickyK, 12. Jan 2003 02:43 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| And you have the possibilty of hitting the ace to win, also the player may not bet the turn or flop and may also be on a draw i would re-raise the bet on the flop and play it from there. Also it depends on the type of player etc etc etc... Rich :) | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Chasing a draw heads-up -- a paradox?, Andrew Wells, 12. Jan 2003 11:26 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| And if you catch the flush while you may not get bet into on the river, you will probably get called for an extra bet more than half the time anyway. Always refigure your odds when you see the turn. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network |
|