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Server Time: 11/20/2009 5:42:33 PM PACIFIC |
 $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Jim Brier, 8. Dec 2002 13:50 | ||
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| I probably played the following hand poorly, but managed to win. I would like a criitque of my thought process. This is a 9-handed $80-$160 game at the Bellagio which occurred last night. The place is packed with tons of high limit games all over the place because of the Bellagio poker tournament. I was winning substantially and my image was good. I am on the button with the Ac-Th. It is folded to the cutoff who opens with a raise. The cutoff is a wealthy local who is a solid player but who will raise pretty light from late position. I 3-bet. I want to isolate him with position and I know there are a vast array of hands he would open-raise with in this spot not just premium ones. The small blind calls. I had not planned on this. The small blind is a clueless tourist. The big blind folds. The cutoff calls. There are 10 small bets in the pot and three players. The flop is: Kc-Qd-5h. It is checked to me. I bet. The clueless one now raises. The cutoff folds. I suspect I am in trouble but there are 13 small bets in the pot and I have 7 outs to improve (4 outs to the nut straight and 3 overcard outs). I call. There are 14 small bets in the pot. The turn is the 8c. The tourist bets. There are now 16 small bets in the pot and it costs me a double bet to call. I have a 7-outer which is a 6-to-1 shot and my pot odds are 8-to-1 plus I figure to collect a double bet at the river if I hit the winning hand. The problem is that an ace may not be an out but I simply cannot tell. I figure I have a small overlay, so I call. The river is the Jh. My opponent checks. I bet, he calls, and I win without seeing his hand. One of the better players in the game thought it was strange that I played a gutshot all the way to the river. Was my play bad? | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, GROAN, 8. Dec 2002 14:56 | ||
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| on 8. Dec 2002 13:50 Jim Brier wrote: > I probably played the following hand poorly, but managed to win. I would like a > criitque of my thought process. > Well its a bit intimidating to critique the play of someone who habitually plays 80-160, but what the heck. Besides this hand isn't that unusual. Im usually 20-40/ 30-60, but this is close enough. > This is a 9-handed $80-$160 game at the Bellagio which occurred last night. > I was winning substantially and my image was good. > > I am on the button with the Ac-Th. It is folded to the cutoff who opens with a > raise. The cutoff is a wealthy local who is a solid player but who will raise > pretty light from late position. I 3-bet. I want to isolate him with position > and I know there are a vast array of hands he would open-raise with in this spot > not just premium ones. The small blind calls. I had not planned on this. The > small blind is a clueless tourist. The big blind folds. The cutoff calls. There > are 10 small bets in the pot and three players. > All true, then AT is probably good enough to 3bet to isolate. BUT The call in the small blind means you are facing at least SOMETHING real, no? Even against a tourist? The tourists I play against still respect a 3 bet, even in the BB let alone the SB. He's putting 10 more chips out there to save 2, not even tourists have a hard time letting go of 2 chips in this situation (raise, reraise). > The flop is: Kc-Qd-5h. > > It is checked to me. I bet. The clueless one now raises. The cutoff folds. I > suspect I am in trouble but there are 13 small bets in the pot and I have 7 outs > to improve (4 outs to the nut straight and 3 overcard outs). I call. There are > 14 small bets in the pot. > Here is my major disagreement between your thought process and mine in this hand. I would have given myself 4 outs to the gutshot and SUBSTANTIALLY discounted my Ace as an out here - maybe count it as 1.5 outs or so at BEST. The reason is that I would suspect highly that he has AK, or KQ(s or o). Maybe as doggy as AQs, but he would probably chk/call w/ that. Probably KQs since he doesn't fear your "AA". Tourist or not, he called a 3 bet and then check raised me on the flop. The tourists i know always equate a 3 bettor with AA. He has no fear of you, I doubt he would have this outlook with anything less than AK so you are domianted in your pair draws. You are really down to your gutshot as your outs. > The turn is the 8c. The tourist bets. There are now 16 small bets in the pot > and it costs me a double bet to call. I have a 7-outer which is a 6-to-1 shot > and my pot odds are 8-to-1 plus I figure to collect a double bet at the river if > I hit the winning hand. The problem is that an ace may not be an out but I > simply cannot tell. I figure I have a small overlay, so I call. > I know you realized it. We just differ in the degree of discounting that Ace. I say its worth only 1/2 an out or so, not the full 3 outs. > The river is the Jh. My opponent checks. I bet, he calls, and I win without > seeing his hand. One of the better players in the game thought it was strange > that I played a gutshot all the way to the river. > > Was my play bad? I guess it all depends on truly how clueless the tourist really was. If he was nutty enough to play 88 that way, then sure you were fine. If he had some real experience, then I do think the point of your maybe having overvalued your Ace outs is legitimate by your critic (Abdul?). GROAN p.s. Caro, consider my offer over on RGP. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Mike Caro, 11. Dec 2002 14:24 | ||
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| Your offer is being considered, and I WILL publicly put all of the history documents, photos, plus my own thoughts and some code about my "artificially intelligent" poker player, Orac online. Unfortunately, I can't pin myself to a deadline, because whenever I do that I go completely nuts, miss the date by seventeen years or so, and make everyone unhappy. I'll try to get to it soon, and I greatly appreciate the interest you expressed. Meanwhile, thanks for your intelligent post and for adding to the thoughtfulness of this discussion. Straight Flushes, Mike Caro | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Mark, 8. Dec 2002 16:06 | ||
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| I'm not nearly good enough to critic a $80-160, but as I see it, your only questionable actions was whether or not to continue on the turn. You had pot odds to continue on the flop, even if it was only to the gutshot straight. But to continue on the turn, you needed you Aces to be live outs. If the tourist was clueless, I would definately continue. Mark > I probably played the following hand poorly, but managed to win. I would like a > criitque of my thought process. > > This is a 9-handed $80-$160 game at the Bellagio which occurred last night. The > place is packed with tons of high limit games all over the place because of the > Bellagio poker tournament. I was winning substantially and my image was good. > > I am on the button with the Ac-Th. It is folded to the cutoff who opens with a > raise. The cutoff is a wealthy local who is a solid player but who will raise > pretty light from late position. I 3-bet. I want to isolate him with position > and I know there are a vast array of hands he would open-raise with in this spot > not just premium ones. The small blind calls. I had not planned on this. The > small blind is a clueless tourist. The big blind folds. The cutoff calls. There > are 10 small bets in the pot and three players. > > The flop is: Kc-Qd-5h. > > It is checked to me. I bet. The clueless one now raises. The cutoff folds. I > suspect I am in trouble but there are 13 small bets in the pot and I have 7 outs > to improve (4 outs to the nut straight and 3 overcard outs). I call. There are > 14 small bets in the pot. > > The turn is the 8c. The tourist bets. There are now 16 small bets in the pot > and it costs me a double bet to call. I have a 7-outer which is a 6-to-1 shot > and my pot odds are 8-to-1 plus I figure to collect a double bet at the river if > I hit the winning hand. The problem is that an ace may not be an out but I > simply cannot tell. I figure I have a small overlay, so I call. > > The river is the Jh. My opponent checks. I bet, he calls, and I win without > seeing his hand. One of the better players in the game thought it was strange > that I played a gutshot all the way to the river. > > Was my play bad? | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Mark Walkley, 9. Dec 2002 04:55 | ||
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| What is inconsistent here with them having AA/KK/QQ ? If they play quite straightforwardly then it's possible they would call the preflop bets, though they could maybe raise. They then check-raise the flop, bet the turn, and quite sensibly check-call the river with a possible straight out there. The pot was quite large so they really have to call on the end in case you missed a club flush draw or have 2 pair or such like. I just wondered why you did not fear a set before calling the turn ? This would rule out your overcard outs + they have outs to a full house. I play at limits 80x smaller than these so I'm just curious, as at 1/2 I would be fairly sure I was toast here. Good catch on the river anyway :) Mark. on 8. Dec 2002 13:50 Jim Brier wrote: > I probably played the following hand poorly, but managed to win. I would like a > criitque of my thought process. > > This is a 9-handed $80-$160 game at the Bellagio which occurred last night. The > place is packed with tons of high limit games all over the place because of the > Bellagio poker tournament. I was winning substantially and my image was good. > > I am on the button with the Ac-Th. It is folded to the cutoff who opens with a > raise. The cutoff is a wealthy local who is a solid player but who will raise > pretty light from late position. I 3-bet. I want to isolate him with position > and I know there are a vast array of hands he would open-raise with in this spot > not just premium ones. The small blind calls. I had not planned on this. The > small blind is a clueless tourist. The big blind folds. The cutoff calls. There > are 10 small bets in the pot and three players. > > The flop is: Kc-Qd-5h. > > It is checked to me. I bet. The clueless one now raises. The cutoff folds. I > suspect I am in trouble but there are 13 small bets in the pot and I have 7 outs > to improve (4 outs to the nut straight and 3 overcard outs). I call. There are > 14 small bets in the pot. > > The turn is the 8c. The tourist bets. There are now 16 small bets in the pot > and it costs me a double bet to call. I have a 7-outer which is a 6-to-1 shot > and my pot odds are 8-to-1 plus I figure to collect a double bet at the river if > I hit the winning hand. The problem is that an ace may not be an out but I > simply cannot tell. I figure I have a small overlay, so I call. > > The river is the Jh. My opponent checks. I bet, he calls, and I win without > seeing his hand. One of the better players in the game thought it was strange > that I played a gutshot all the way to the river. > > Was my play bad? | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Jim Brier, 9. Dec 2002 10:23 | ||
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| A set is certainly a possibility but I still have 4 outs to the nut straight. Clearly, if he has a set than I am wrong in calling the turn bet since my ace is not an out. This is part of the overall problem in determining how to evaluate the ace overcard. On the other hand, he might have waited until the turn to attempt a check-raise if he had a set. On the turn, if he has a set and fills up at the river, this means neither a jack or an ace would have shown up so I would be folding at the river anyway. Since he failed to bet the river, my guess is that he did not have a set. The only hands I could have that would beat a set on the river are specifically A-T and T-9. But would I have 3-bet preflop with T-9? My guess is that he had a king and was worried about me having a bigger king or two pair or a straight.. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Jacob, 9. Dec 2002 05:35 | ||
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| Hi I find the term "Tourist" a bit strange. You often hear it but how do the perceiver define a fellow player as a "tourist". I mean if I sat down at a high limit table in Vegas spoke a different language, my native :), and noone knew me would that make me a "tourist" even though I have 1200+ hours of Onlinepoker experience including 10/20 20/40 and high skilled attended multiplayer tournaments. Well I guess Mr Brier must know what he is talking about and if he do he'll also know whether or not he made a mistake and "got lucky" that night at bellagio. My guess is he saw the "tourist" play on and found out this was a balanced player maybe even somewhat good who wouldn't call a preflop tripplebet and carry on with an inferior hand. Maybe even a player who would check call a set on river when the danger card fell? regards, jacob | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Lin Sherman, 9. Dec 2002 07:22 | ||
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| I don't much like your bet on the flop. It smacks of Runoverthetaballlistics without having a clear purpose or logic to it. Sometimes it's okay to just check on the flop and take your badly-needed free card rather than betting your opponents' hands for them, even in 80-160. If you had put in the only preflop raise, that would be different. Now your opponents' hands may be weak enough that a bet will cause them to fold weak pairs because of the scary flop. You might even have the best hand. In the given auction, however, there is an overwhelming likelihood that this flop slapped at least one of them right upside the head. So the value of betting is highly questionable. You might ask yourself: (1) What are the chances they will both fold? (2) What are the chances that one or both will call with a hand I can beat? (3) What are the chances that I'll get my ass check-raised? (which directly affects the profitability of betting to get a free card on the turn). I think the answers here are (1) close to zero, (2) zero, and (3) at least 50%. Also, once you get check-raised on the flop, I think you should assume you have at most 4 outs. Your ace is toast. If anything, clueless players are MORE likely than a pro to have a real hand here, and it's likely to be AA, AK, KQ, or a set, maybe K5s if SB is very loose, maybe JT (but that also means an ace is no good for you). The only reasonable hands you can beat with an ace are hands like KJs and KTs and they have redraws to beat or tie you. Lin | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Jim Brier, 9. Dec 2002 10:42 | ||
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| I think a flop bet is automatic in this situation with only two opponents. I am the preflop 3-bettor marked with a good hand against a late position steal-raiser and a small blind caller. Let us go through your questions. 1. What are the chances they will both fold? It must be much higher than zero. Give the cutoff a pair lower than queens or a suited connector and he may well fold. Give the small blind the same hand and he may fold. There are 10 bets in the pot. For one bet, I may well get both opponents to fold better hands than mine. When this happens I gain a lot. 2. What are the chances that one or both will call with a hand I can beat? Not good, but the possibility of winning the pot outright overwhelms this concern. It is remotely possible one of them will call with something like T-9. 3. What are the chances of getting check-raised? Not that high unless one of them has top pair or better. Again, I am the preflop 3-bettor and a flop containing both a king and a queen could easily connect with a lot of hands I would 3-bet with preflop. This board may look as scary to my opponents as it does to me. If I am check-raised, my pot odds will have grown to 13-to-1 making it correct to play on with just my gutshot. It is not clear that being check-raised on the flop means that "by ace is toast" although it may well be. I have seen guys check-raise in this situation with top pair in an attempt to get the third player out of the hand. I do agree that when I get check-raised I need to discount my overcard outs somewhat. This is really the crux of the problem. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, CapnD, 9. Dec 2002 11:54 | ||
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| on 9. Dec 2002 10:42 Jim Brier wrote: > I think a flop bet is automatic in this situation with only two opponents. I am the > preflop 3-bettor marked with a good hand against a late position steal-raiser and a small > blind caller. Let us go through your questions. > > 1. What are the chances they will both fold? > > It must be much higher than zero. Give the cutoff a pair lower than queens or a suited > connector and he may well fold. Give the small blind the same hand and he may fold. There > are 10 bets in the pot. For one bet, I may well get both opponents to fold better hands > than mine. When this happens I gain a lot. I imagine there are not many players at the 80/160 level that play weak-tight. To fold a better hand than yours in this situation is extremely weak tight. As you say, a bet on the flop is an auto-bet. Most players will see it as such and its very unlikely they will lay down any hand that beats you. On the other hand, betting the flop does make it almost impossible for somebody to steal the pot from you on the turn. If the SB will play trash here (I consider any hand with out a A,K,Q or a pocket pair to be trash in this case), then the bet on the flop is automatic. Also, the SB may be guilty of FPS and try to wait for the check-raise on the turn. In the case, betting the flop allows you to take your free card draw to the nuts on the turn. As is the case with most poker hands, its very player specific. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Andrew Wells, 9. Dec 2002 07:24 | ||
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| You can only expect to collect a big bet on the river if you catch the jack, an ace is simply not an out here. If an ace happens to fall on the river and you're bet into, are you going to pay off hoping he called $200 cold before the flop and then checkraised with KJ or KT? Suppose he checks the ace on the river figuring you could have made aces up, do you think he'll lay down KQ on the river? He showed he could checkraise; if he has a set or JT will he do it again? I doubt there is any value in betting the river with AT. In order to call on the turn with AT, I would have to expect my opponent to checkraise the river if a jack comes. Just getting two big bets out of him if I catch the nuts isn't enough implied odds with four outs on the turn. Only if you think you'll be allowed to check it down on the river if an ace comes, then maybe count it as one out instead of three. I muck on the turn when the tourist bets and I don't improve, but then again I've never played higher than 30-60 limit - so it may be a completely different game. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Jim Brier, 9. Dec 2002 10:46 | ||
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| If an ace comes on the river, I will check if my opponent checks. If my opponent bets when the ace falls, I will make a crying call. I think this is part of the problem with evaluating the ace as an out. If you catch an ace at the river, do you feel good about betting it? Probably not. Nevertheless, there is a definite probability that a pair of aces could end up as the best hand. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Andrew Wells, 9. Dec 2002 22:08 | ||
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| My feel is that an ace will be good only about 25% of the time provided the small blind checks the river. If he does bet at an ace on the river, I don't see even a 5% chance that AT is good. He would have to have something like T9s, and be making a bad bluff. The board is just too strong to expect a bluff to succeed against a preflop three bettor. Nothing wrong with your bet on the flop though. I would expect the tourist to have seen an AK showndown to win unimproved from a raise and reraise situation before the flop. Therefore he could be thinking he might win a good pot with a medium or small pocket pair if the flop comes low. As to the cutoff, there are many legitimate semisteal hands that can't call one more bet like a pocket underpair, medium suited connectors, and ace rag. The tourist's bet on the turn after the checkraise on the flop would have convinced me that I needed to give up. I think you got lucky against a KQs. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, GROAN, 13. Dec 2002 22:53 | ||
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| on 11. Dec 2002 14:24 Mike Caro wrote: > Your offer is being considered, and I WILL publicly put all of the history documents, > photos, plus my own thoughts and some code about my "artificially intelligent" poker > player, Orac online. > > Straight Flushes, > Mike Caro Didn't see this till now Caro. Not a regular on UPF. But ok, I will hold to what I promised - at least for a little while until real progress is made. Don't forget to do it though, as you tend to do. For other readers of this forum, I suggest you 'badger' Caro to tell more of the story of Orac, it is guarenteed to be an interesting story about poker, computers, and the 1980's all rolled into one if written right. This man is the only one who can tell this story as the "Insider" like no one else can, not just of the technology (limited at the time), but also of the personalities and events. Get him motivated to do this by showing interest, privately or on this forum. Now I must return to my normal home as being on 'modern' forums tends to make my stomach hurt a bit. GROAN | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, CapnD, 9. Dec 2002 07:28 | ||
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| You say the SB is a clueless tourist, but if he was any type of decent player then I dont like your bet on the flop. Not many good players I know will call 2.5 bets cold out of position and then fold on a flop with a K and Q on it. With most decent players, I would take my free card. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Jim Brier, 9. Dec 2002 10:49 | ||
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| What would you do in the small blind against a late position steal-raiser and a button 3-bettor having JJ, TT, or 99? Would you fold these hands? What would you do having J-T suited or T-9 suited? How about A-J suited? Many players will call out of their small blind with these hands under the situation described. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, CapnD, 9. Dec 2002 11:39 | ||
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| on 9. Dec 2002 10:49 Jim Brier wrote: > What would you do in the small blind against a late position steal-raiser and a button > 3-bettor having JJ, TT, or 99? I would probably 4-bet these hands to try to get heads-up with the 3-bettor, but if I just called pre-flop then my plan would be to check-raise the 3-bettor unless an Ace flopped. If the original raiser and the 3-bettor calls, I'm probably done with the hand. >Would you fold these hands? Not unless an Ace flops. >What would you do having J-T suited or T-9 suited? I would fold these hands pre-flop, although I could see many people playing them. I dont see a good player playing these hands out of the SB, but then maybe many do. These hands are dominated by many of your 3-bet hands. >How about A-J suited? I would check-call the flop. If the original raiser folds then I probably am going to the river with this hand. I dont like the flop, but there are many hands you could 3-bet with that I beat (Ax) and many that I have tons of outs against (JJ-55). There being a K and Q on the board takes away a lot of hands I can beat or outdraw, so I'm not exactly happy with the flop. From your standpoint, I guess it really depends on how the SB plays. Against a good player with tight requirements in the SB then I become much more passive on the flop. Against a loose tourist I pound the pot. A tight aggressive player in the SB will see whats going on with the 3-bet, but still has to have a good hand to mess around considering he has bad position and has to pay 2.5 bets to play. Even though he knows the raises are light, its still sometimes better to run away and live to fight another day. As with a loose tourist, he could have anything. I bet the flop and hope he was playing something like 98s. If you dont bet the flop, then your just begging the SB to take the pot from you on the turn. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Ted Good, 9. Dec 2002 08:06 | ||
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| You played a gutshot all the way, no more or less. I suspect that successful high level poker players, such as you, rely on instinct much more than they care to admit. Then try to quantify their instinctive play with statistical analysis. Comments? | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Jim Brier, 9. Dec 2002 10:51 | ||
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| This is the way most casual players at the table undoubtedly viewed the situation. It may well be an accurate observation. But I think pot size and having extra outs must play a role at some point. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Ted Good, 9. Dec 2002 11:07 | ||
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| Not to be flippant, as I am a great admirer of your Card Player articles, however your response echos the old English phrase"In for a penny, in for a pound". Ted Good | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, noiseboy, 17. Jan 2003 16:48 | ||
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| Well, I think you played it right, even if you lost the hand, then it would help you get callers when in better drawing situations if you are known as someone who followed a gutshot all the way to the river. But I'm a low limit player, you most certainly know more about these types of games than me. | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Phat Mack, 9. Dec 2002 11:36 | ||
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| It seems to me that your play hinged on your evaluation of the tourist and you consideration of an ace as an 'out.' How long had you played with him? How clueless was he? Did he understand anything about the game? | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Jacob, 9. Dec 2002 15:58 | ||
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| Hi again In my last post I said I had 1200+ hours experience well it was a mistake I meant 2200+ well never mind and noone cares anyway :). what I meant to say in my first post was that the only one who can decide whether u played badly as you suggested well it is in fact yourself, the rest of us are REALLY clueless when it comes 2 make a proper judgement of the "tourist". I know one thing if I called a tripplebet in such a limitgame, which I have never played, I definately wouldn't checkraise flop and bet turn unless an Ace was a negative out on your account. regards, jacob | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, timmer, 10. Dec 2002 16:50 | ||
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| I dont really like the three bet preflop jim . it causes some big pot problems and some solutions. there is something to be said for keeping the pot small with a hand like ATos but if the hand comes down looking like a str8 or a gut shot your big pot is what you need to pay off that kind of draw. However by keeping the pot small and if an A would have happen to fall. that could be good enough to run off your opponents. Something I doubt youll be able to do with dim witted touristas looking at big pots. the odds were right to pay you off on a 5 card hand which would be good considering the action and the board. so Im glad it worked out. this is a classic example of why it is important to think about how a hand will be played on the future rounds and how that play effects the play on this round | ||
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| Re: $80-$160 Hand: Comments Please, Piers Majestyk, 13. Dec 2002 08:29 | ||
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| In my opinion you should not have played the hand at all. If I play this hand I want to be the first guy putting in the raise. Perhaps the cutoff does raise with several types of hands but just maybe he has a decent hand that puts you in a very bad position. I would have bet as you did on the flop and when faced with the raise I would have repopped him. You showed great strength before the flop and I don't believe he could have a hand that could reraise you in this position (if he does reraise then just call and muck the turn when you miss as you are facing a set and not getting the odds to continue). This would have saved you half a bet as you could simply check the turn when you didn't improve after in all likelihood he checked to you on the turn. I hope that makes some sense. | ||
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