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Server Time: 8/30/2008 12:14:46 AM PACIFIC |
 Calculating odds, mickblueeyes, 22. Nov 2002 11:44 | ||
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| I need odds calculation help. I am not very mathematically inclined (I have had lots of Calculus, but can't do stats to save my life) and I am having conceptual problems calculating odds. For instance, how do you calculate that the odds are 1.75:1 of making a flush from a four flush on 5th street in stud? Additionally, when calculating odds at the table, does "unseen cards" refer to the remaining cards in the deck or the unseen cards in the deck plus the unseen cards on the table? Where do I include my cards in the calculation? HELP!!!! | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, mickblueeyes, 22. Nov 2002 11:51 | ||
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| The reason I bring this up is, being a newbie to the game, I tried reading "The Theory of Poker" when I first started last November. There should be a warning label on that book not to read it unless you have been playing poker a while! Needless to say, I didn't make it all the way through it. However, I did pick up books by Caro, Krieger and West about the games I wanted to play that helped out my game and got me moving in the right direction. I decided to try "The Theory of Poker" again to see if it was any better and it is much, much easier to read now that I have been playing a year, but I am still having some issues understanding how he comes up with some of his calculations. Sklanky, if you read this, PLEASE show your work in future editions LOL! Mr. Caro, if you read this, please write your Odds book! I need your help! (BTW, Amazon.com still lists this book as printed by Lyle Stuart in 1985, with a sales rank of 798,958 and even has reviews written about it!) | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, Kevin J, 22. Nov 2002 12:49 | ||
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| Unseen cards means unseen cards. So suppose you flop a flush draw in hold'em. There are 9 of your suit left out of 47 unseen cards. Of these 47 unseen cards, 9 help you and 38 do not. Simplified, this is 4.2 to 1 against. Hope this helps. | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, mickblueeyes, 22. Nov 2002 13:08 | ||
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| Okay, so I hold 4 cards to a flush on 4th street against 3 others in a pot. None of my suit are out. There are 6 exposed cards besides my own and 6 unseen cards on the board for a total of 10 exposed cards and 42 unseen cards. 9 cards in the deck can help me 33 won't for odds of 3.6:1. However, according to Roy West, the odds against making a flush when holding 4 cards to a flush on 4th street is 1.75 to 1. If I don't include any of the other players cards in "unseen" cards, then 36 cards remain in the deck of which 9 help me, which gives me 3:1 odds. I don't see how these numbers mesh with his 1.75:1 calculation--or any of his calculations or Sklansky's for that matter. Still don't understand. | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, Kevin J, 22. Nov 2002 15:20 | ||
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| You seem to have it right except that in your example there would be 14 unseen cards (assuming an 8 handed game). 8 door cards + your 2 hole cards + 4 fourth street cards. If I remember correctly, there WAS an odds calculation error somewhere in Theory of Poker. I think it was toward the beginning of the book and somewhere near the bottom of the page. Perhaps in a footnote. Although I thought this had to do with a runner-runner calculation. It's possible that there's also an error in Roy West's book or article. I have TOP. If you want to give me the page no. I'll be happy to look it up. | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, Lee Vaughn, 22. Nov 2002 13:56 | ||
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| Alright, I'll take a stab at this and hope it makes sense...lol For starters unseen cards is literally any card you haven't seen. So in your example the seen cards would be your cards, plus the up cards of all the players still in and any player who has folded. Whatever that total is subtracted from 52 would be your number of unseen cards. I think where you are gettting thrown off in your calculations is that you are not taking into account that you will have three more chances to catch your flush, not just one. So you take the nine cards that will help you and multiply it by three. You will then divide the total unseen card by 27 in this case. Hope that helps. I didn't qoute your post so I can't see your numbers to give you the correct calculation, but you should be able to figure it now. On a side not, in Sklansky's Tournament Poker book he does a much better job of showing his work. Lee | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, mickblueeyes, 22. Nov 2002 14:40 | ||
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| That's it! It works out now. I didn't realize I had to multiply it! Thanks! | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, Mano, 22. Nov 2002 15:27 | ||
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| It is not as simple as just multiplying by the number of unseen cards - otherwise if you drew 5 more cards your calculation would come out to be greater than one. There are two different ways to actually calculate the probability of a flush draw here. The simpler of the two is to calculate the odds that you do NOT get the flush - so if there are 42 unseen cards, the probability of not getting the flush on the first card is 33/42, 32/41 for the second card assuming you did not draw a club on the first, and 31/40 for the third also assuming no flush for first two. Multiplying these three numbers together gives the probability of not getting the flush, which would be 33*32*31/(42*41*40) = .4752 . The probability you DO get the flush is 1 - the probability you do NOT get the flush, which is .5247. So you will get your flush here 52.47% of the time. To convert this to odds you divide the probability by 1-the probability, i.e. .5247/.4752 or 1.1:1 in favor of getting the flush. The other way to calculate the probability of getting the flush would be to calculate the probability of getting the flush on the first card, then adding the probability of not getting the flush on the first card times the probability of getting flush on second card and then adding the probability of getting flush on the third card times the probability of not getting the flush on the first two cards. This is a little more complicated, and I won't go into details here. Anyway, that's how you actually do it. on 22. Nov 2002 13:56 Lee Vaughn wrote: > Alright, I'll take a stab at this and hope it makes sense...lol > > For starters unseen cards is literally any card you haven't seen. So in your > example the seen cards would be your cards, plus the up cards of all the players > still in and any player who has folded. Whatever that total is subtracted from 52 > would be your number of unseen cards. > > I think where you are gettting thrown off in your calculations is that you are not > taking into account that you will have three more chances to catch your flush, not > just one. So you take the nine cards that will help you and multiply it by three. > You will then divide the total unseen card by 27 in this case. > > Hope that helps. I didn't qoute your post so I can't see your numbers to give you > the correct calculation, but you should be able to figure it now. On a side not, in > Sklansky's Tournament Poker book he does a much better job of showing his work. > > Lee | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, Lee Vaughn, 22. Nov 2002 15:38 | ||
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| Thanks, I knew I was forgeting something but I couldn't figure out what it was. (I was at work posting quickly) You have to take into account that the total unseen cards will go down by one after each card is dealt. Lee | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, 2jelsky, 24. Nov 2002 08:28 | ||
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| assuming that you do know how to count the outs, then the odds would be as follows: 52 cards in a deck -6 seen -9 outs (you see 4 of a suit=9 of that suit IN unseen cards) leaving 37 unseen cards, thus, 37 to 9, or about 4 to 1 unseen refers to ALL cards which you do not actually see | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, mickblueeyes, 24. Nov 2002 21:32 | ||
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| Thanks for the great information guys! I have a lot to work on to be able to calculate this in my head at the table! | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, LuckyOne, 28. Nov 2002 04:07 | ||
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| In my spare time I think about how many BETS need to be in the pot to make my call good. In other words, if there are 6 big bets in the pot and i need ten to one odds, i am not good to go, unless I will make up the deficiency later! and if i need ten to one to make a gut shot and it is raised to me and one of my cards will make a flush, GACK, there can't be enough bets in the pot to make it right to call a raise, but they DO! I am a retired school teacher who also took calculus many years ago, and I don't like regressing to any mean either in statistics, but counting bets instead of dollars makes things easier for me, let me know if it helps you! | ||
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| Re: Calculating odds, jEROME95, 12. Dec 2002 13:10 | ||
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| on 28. Nov 2002 04:07 LuckyOne wrote: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx bbbbbbbbbbbbb ccccccccccccccc ddddddddddddddd eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee fffffffffffg > In my spare time I think about how many BETS need to be in the pot to make my call > good. In other words, if there are 6 big bets in the pot and i need ten to one odds, > i am not good to go, unless I will make up the deficiency later! and if i need ten to > one to make a gut shot and it is raised to me and one of my cards will make a flush, > GACK, there can't be enough bets in the pot to make it right to call a raise, but > they DO! > > I am a retired school teacher who also took calculus many years ago, and I don't > like regressing to any mean either in statistics, but counting bets instead of > dollars makes things easier for me, let me know if it helps you! | ||
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