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Server Time: 2/13/2012 11:19:11 AM PACIFIC |
 What should I be thinking about?, Kevin J, 11. Nov 2002 21:06 | ||
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| A typical player (with maybe slightly loose raising standards) raised UTG and was called by two tightish players. I was somewhat surprised to see both of these players call without taking it to 3 bets. I made it 3-bets myself from the button with Kd,Qd. The blinds folded and everyone called. The flop came 7d,6c,4h. UTG bet, and the next player raised. The next player folded. Should I fold or continue? And is it close? | ||
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| Re: What should I be thinking about?, Mark, 12. Nov 2002 05:22 | ||
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| I am folding here every time. With the pre-flop action I am putting tight players on middle pairs (10-10, j-j, 9-9) or A-K, k-q, or other high suited connectors. The flop raiser probably has an over pair but if you make a pair on the turn you can't assume its the best hand (you may be up against A-k or A-Q). Also, the flop bettor may re-raise. You dont' have a raising hand or a strong draw, so fold. Mark | ||
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| Re: What should I be thinking about?, Kevin J, 12. Nov 2002 06:47 | ||
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| I folded and immediately questioned my decision. A friend who witnessed the hand tried to console me by saying that folding was a "no brainer". But how can it be a no brainer? I think an important question is how many live outs do I have? And just how "typical" are my opponents? A typical UTG raiser (who did not 4 bet after it was re-raised), is not likely to bet out on a 764 flop with AK. So this puts him most likely on a pocket pair which I should have 6 outs to. Also with the possible exception of QQ, he's not likely to have a holding that dominates mine. The solid cold-caller who now raises UTG's flop bet also isn't likely to make this play into a pre-flop 3 bettor with AK. Furthermore, with AA,KK,QQ and AK he probably 3-bets pre-flop himself. This puts him on some kind of medium pocket pair as well. And I think it's a little more likely that this player doesn't hold anything that dominates KQ. Now it's true one of them could've flopped a set... But if not, this means I should have 6 clean outs to any king or queen PLUS a runner-runner diamond draw which figures to be to the nuts (assuming I'm right about their hands). I think this backdoor flush draw is important in a pot this size. All I'm saying is that I think it's closer than it appears. And you probably shouldn't be making it 3 bets pre-flop with a hand like KQs if you're not a good enough player to play it really well afterwards. And I think there's little doubt I fall into this catagory. Oh, the turn was an 8d. The river was an off king. UTG had 88. The other player had TT. I don't think I get UTG off his over pair/gut-shot str8 draw with a 3-bet on the flop. Ironically, had the flop been more ragged I probably would have 3 bet and got 88 to fold and won it with a pair of kings on the river. As it was, I was too worried about a flopped set or a straight draw getting there and didn't pull the trigger. But as it stands, I think I should've continued. It's on the edge, but I think probably correct. (Unless someone can change my mind). Thanks for responding Mark. | ||
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| RESULTS, Kevin J, 12. Nov 2002 06:48 | ||
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| I meant to title my above response with "Results" | ||
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| Re: What should I be thinking about?, Mark, 12. Nov 2002 07:07 | ||
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| You had good pot odds to drawing to a pair, but in that situation did you really think it would win if you made it. ( I read you post and it was closer than I thought it would be, but lets ignore the actual outcome) I definately put someone on a hand at least as good as yours ( if the players are "tight"). Unless there was alot of pre-flop/flop action on most hands, I would definately be out of there. I think we can both aggree to rule out AA or KK from any opponents starting hand. But i wouldn't rule out AKoffsuit, AQsuit/offsuit, or QQ (i wouldn't make it 4 bets with QQ pre-flop). Unless i really knew my opponents i would expect to see something high and connected or small gapped. But that is just my opinion. Mark | ||
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| Re: What should I be thinking about?, Mark, 13. Nov 2002 07:23 | ||
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| kevin I did some math for this problem and what I came up with is (not 100% sure of these calculations) against Ak, AQ, QQ, J-J, 10-10, and 9-9 you are approx. a 9-1 dog. Your chances increas to about 8-1 if you eliminate the AK and AQ. your only getting 7.5:1 pot odds. Also I didn't include in my calculations when you make a pair and a pocket pair makes trips. | ||
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| THANKS!, Kevin J, 14. Nov 2002 07:51 | ||
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| I really appreciate your taking time to do the math. Since I suck at math and am too lazy on top of it, I'll trust your number are at least close. Since, I feel very confident you can eliminate AK and AQ, it looks like it IS in fact a little "closer" than it first appears. I'm also assuming you're not factoring in implied odds, although I'll give you that they can't be too high. There is also the chance for reverse implied odds, but I don't think that's a major concern. Had I 3-bet the flop I'm almost certain to get checked to on the turn (by the hands they had). Even a set might check in order to check/raise. By 3-betting I reduce my odds to a little less than 6 to 1 (if I don't get re-raised), but it's very possible I get a free card on the turn. btw- How did you get 8 to 1 dog without AK or AQ out? Did you factor in my backdoor flush draw? Thanks again Mark, I really appreciate it. | ||
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| Re: THANKS!, Mark, 14. Nov 2002 15:14 | ||
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| I screwed up my earlier calculations. I just reread some odds calcuting literature and here are my new (and improved) odds. Your odds of making a pair by the river are 3.14:1 your odds of making 2 pair are104:1 your odds of making a flush are13.8:1 your total odds of improving are 2.23:1 If your up against both AK and AQ, you have to 2 pair or flush to win, to which you are a13.8:1 dog. Against AK, AQ, QQ, JJ, 10-10, and 9-9 you always need to improve to win. If QQ - 99 improves you are drawing dead. Against any one of the above hands (you don't know which specific one though), you are only a 5:1 dog. Against 2 of the above hands(2 opponents at the same time) you are a 13.5:1 dog. Against 3 opponents with PP you are just as likely to improve as they are, giving you very long odds. The call vs. fold decision is closer that I thought it would be, but in order to call you would have to be certain that both callers had PP (JJ or lower) and if the 3rd player calls your probably drawing dead or close to it. If anyone else wants to check my math, please feel free. Are there any books that give detailed lessons on how to calculate hand vs. hands during various stages (i.e. 5 cards to come and 2 cards to come)? Mark Against 1 opponent with a PP (from above)you become a 3.1:1 dog. Against 2 opponents with PP (from above) you are a 6.1:1 dog | ||
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| Re: What should I be thinking about?, Roy Cooke, 12. Nov 2002 09:00 | ||
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| Hi Kevin You should be thinking about folding...and it ain't close! Roy Cooke ' on 11. Nov 2002 21:06 Kevin J wrote: > A typical player (with maybe slightly loose raising standards) raised UTG and > was called by two tightish players. I was somewhat surprised to see both of > these players call without taking it to 3 bets. I made it 3-bets myself from the > button with Kd,Qd. The blinds folded and everyone called. > > The flop came 7d,6c,4h. > > UTG bet, and the next player raised. The next player folded. > > Should I fold or continue? And is it close? > > | ||
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| Rush to Judgement?, Kevin J, 12. Nov 2002 19:01 | ||
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| Roy- In the short time I've been visiting this forum, I gather you don't get into debating ideas. And I certainly don't want to start any such debate. But I do think this hand offers a little more to think about than your one line answer indicates. I'm not saying folding is wrong, but when you consider the likelihood of both of my opponents holding pocket pairs which would leave me with 6 clean outs, in addition to my backdoor flush draw, I do think it's closer than you make it out to be. In fact, change the flop to 7d,4c,2h... And I think 3-betting becomes a viable play for me on the flop. | ||
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