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Server Time: 9/6/2008 3:54:40 PM PACIFIC |
 Essay for UPF per Mike Caro, george epstein, 27. Oct 2002 12:48 | ||
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| IMike Caro invited me to send this essay for the Poker Forum. Comments will be welcomed. Let me know if you have any problems with it -- and if/when it will be posted. Thanks, george epstein Bush Playing Poker on Iraq? by George “The Engineer” Epstein* Can expertise in playing poker lead to success in dealing with global political and military issues? Mike Caro, The Mad Genius of Poker, has often told us that the game of poker is a microcosm of life. Playing the game of poker actually epitomizes living in the real world. It occurred to me that President George W. Bush – intentionally perhaps – is playing poker in confronting the dangerous life-or-death situation involving Saddam Hussein and the country of Iraq. Read what I have to say, and let me know your opinion. . . To be a winning poker player you must have skill. (Luck helps too.) The four Basic Rules for Winning at the game of poker and the poker strategies described in my book, The Greatest Book of Poker for WINNERS!, can teach you how to become skilled. Possibly without realizing it, President Bush is applying some of these to the situation involving Iraq. Let’s briefly examine that situation and see how he is “playing poker” in dealing with it. Saddam Hussein is an evil man; he has continued to develop and store chemical and biological weapons capable of mass destruction; and he appears to be developing nuclear weapons too. He has demonstrated that he would use these if it suits his purposes. A condition for the resolution of the Gulf War was that he would get rid of these weapons and allow United Nations (UN) representatives to verify that none were being built or stored. But the UN inspectors were summarily removed from the scene. The UN subsequently passed several resolutions to resume inspections, but Saddam Hussein’s regime places severe limitations on access for the UN inspectors/monitors, and hence their ability to do an effective job. For whatever reasons, some members of the UN Security Council seem willing to avoid or relax the inspection process. So how should President Bush, as the leader of the world’s only remaining superpower, deal with this situation? Now then, in playing winning poker it is necessary to have a goal at the outset. When you sit down to play, have a goal as to how much $$$ you want to win. In dealing with the Iraq situation, President Bush has a very important goal: To make sure that Iraq does not have weapons of mass destruction. So what is his strategy? As explained in my poker book, a strategy is really a plan of action to accomplish a goal. So, I believe, President Bush is using a semi-bluff as his strategy. A semi-bluff is a bet on a hand that may or may not be the best at the moment, but could develop into the best; and there are “outs.” This strategy can work as a bluff to force your opponents to fold; but even if they don’t drop out, you could draw the card that makes your hand the winner. So President Bush announces that the U.S. intends to declare war on Iraq; that’s his semi-bluff. Just as in any bluff in the game of poker, he has to be very convincing. If he simply trusts to the UN, there will be endless debate and not much more. The UN has passed many resolutions for renewal of inspections – that have gone nowhere. Meanwhile, Hussein presumably has continued to build and develop weapons of mass destruction. President Bush (perhaps, like President Harry Truman) may be a good poker player. His semi-bluff is to posture a war against Iraq, and do so very convincingly. His goal is to achieve unrestricted inspections and monitoring of Iraq’s facilities to ensure that no weapons of mass destruction are available. And if the “bluff” fails to accomplish that end – if the UN fails to act or issues another seriously deficient resolution, President Bush has options – “outs.” Perhaps diplomacy might work and/or further, more extensive embargo on Iraq; and he still has the option of declaring war against Iraq. ___ * George Epstein, with Dr. Dan Abrams, is the author of The Greatest Book of Poker for WINNERS! (T/C Press, PO Box 36006, Los Angeles, CA 90036; e-mail TCPress@msn.com). George would welcome your comments on this essay. He can also be reached on geps222@msn.com. | ||
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| Re: Essay for UPF per Mike Caro, Hatchet Harry, 28. Oct 2002 11:55 | ||
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| I think Hussain is a call station, he's not a maniac and won't raise but he'll quitely sit there with his second pair and call to the river. Unless bush has a hand he should fold and wait for a better oppotunity. But the question really is, can he read his opponents better than I can - lets hope so! | ||
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| Re: Essay for UPF per Mike Caro, Mark, 29. Oct 2002 09:29 | ||
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| Some people won't like my reply but.. I don't think Bush is smart enough to play high stakes poker. I wouldn't be surprised if he really wants a war. That would raise oil prices and make larger profits for his contributers (the Texas oil companies). | ||
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| Re: Essay for UPF per Mike Caro, DonQuixote, 29. Oct 2002 18:39 | ||
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| You are correct, not everyone agrees with you; but I will not make a counterpoint because to do so would violate the spirit of the posting rules for this forum. Your Bush bashing is out of line here. Go post it on RGP. Don Quixote | ||
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| Re: Essay for UPF per Mike Caro, Mark, 30. Oct 2002 07:16 | ||
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| Your absolutely right, my post did violate the spirit of the forum. I'm truely sorry. It was nothing more than "Bush Bashing" and should never have been posted. I no longer have the option to erase it though. However, allow me to restate my views in the spirit of the forum. I see Bush as somewhat of a maniac. He doesn't get involved with too many hands, but when he's in a pot he goes all in, oblicvious to any tells, pot odds, expected values and the size of the other guys stack. He would give no consideration to if the other guy is a maniac or not, the house rules, and who is sitting on his left. Mark | ||
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