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Server Time: 12/3/2008 10:37:17 PM PACIFIC |
 Does anybody know what the odds is?, JoshuaW, 25. Oct 2002 09:07 | ||
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| This is very interesting and also very frustrating thing happened to me a few days ago. I'd like to know what the odds is. Can anybody help me out, please? In a 9-handed Hold'em game, I lost to the same guy back to back with the following 2 hands. First hand: I'm in big blind with KJ off-suit and flop came A-Q-10 rainbow. Turn 8 and there's no flush possibility here. River card came 10. The guy won with A-10. The very next hand, I'm in small blind with Kh3h and flop came A-9-2 hearts. So, I flopped the nut again! Then turn card came 2 and rivered A. The same guy won with A-7 off-suit! At that moment, I was thinking how back luck of me on those 2 hands. Flop nut 2 hands and just lost to the same guy back to back. Help me out what the odds is. | ||
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| Re: Does anybody know what the odds is?, Mark, 25. Oct 2002 09:32 | ||
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| I'm not sure what the mathematical odds are, but at the low-limits, they increase dramatically. In the last live $5-10 session I played, 5 of my opponents played looser than a $1-2 game online. Absolutely nothing was safe. One particularly "deceptive" player would routinely raise pre-flop with any two rags out of late postion, I'm talking about 8-2 offsuit, and was winning with them. Some players don't know when they're beat and some don't care. I know how frustrated it can be to wait for solid cards, play them aggressively, and lose to someone who cold called three bets with 5-2 suited. Maybe your opponent isn't that bad, and maybe he had pot odds. Maybe drawing with 4 outs to a full house was correct ( you didn't give enough info) but don't worry too much about it happening again, cause it will and you can't stop it. Just keep playing solid poker. I've learned to like the no'foldem games. I get drawn out on alot, but when I make a hand I get paid off. Sorry I didn't do the math but it shouldn't concern you that much. Mark | ||
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| Re: Does anybody know what the odds is?, george epstein, 27. Oct 2002 13:16 | ||
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| Good problem. . . The odds depend on the point at which you want to calculate them. On the River (the best chance he has), his odds of filling up are 10.5 to 1 against him. That's so in each of the two hands. Now then, the odds of his making two full houses in a row, on the River with the cards as described on 6th street, are greater than 100 to 1 against him. And the odds against him at any other time during the game/hands are MUCH MUCH higher. You really had very BAD luck. In the long run, you are bound to beat that guy. Don't be too discouraged. george "The Engineer" epstein | ||
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| Re: Does anybody know what the odds is?, JoshuaW, 9. Nov 2002 02:56 | ||
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| Thanks for your encouraging. I appreciate your input. In fact, I forgot to mention the odds that I was talking about is on the flop, what are the chances with the known hands that he could beat me until river. I guess you made the ponit already. Thanks again, the "Engineer"! | ||
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| Re: Does anybody know what the odds is?, JoshuaW, 9. Nov 2002 03:03 | ||
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| Thanks for your input, Mark. I guess you made a point that in low-limit games most of players just don't know where they're standing or just want to play the hand (for fun, maybe?) I think you're right! Just play the solid poker, those players will pay off in the long run. Thanks again. JoshuaW | ||
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| Re: Does anybody know what the odds is?, Mark, 9. Nov 2002 20:03 | ||
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| Hi Joshua Your welcome for the advice but its not really mine, i stole it from Mike Caro. I just read George Epstein's post again and wanted to add something. While making two consectutive full-houses may have approx. odds of 100:1, this number is meaningless. Everytime you (or anyone else) has two pair on the turn the odds of getting full on the river are 10.5:1. What happened on the previous hand does not change the current hand's odds. So just because your oppent was full on the previous hand, his isn't suddenly looking at 100:1 odds next hand. Mark on 9. Nov 2002 03:03 JoshuaW wrote: > Thanks for your input, Mark. I guess you made a point that in low-limit games most of > players just don't know where they're standing or just want to play the hand (for fun, > maybe?) I think you're right! Just play the solid poker, those players will pay off in the > long run. Thanks again. > > JoshuaW | ||
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