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Server Time: 12/3/2008 8:46:41 PM PACIFIC |
 Safe small pot vs risky big one, RickyK, 15. Oct 2002 09:30 | ||
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| Hello first real post to this site apologies if it seems a tad bizzare but.. In a $100 no limit tourny, 100 runners, 10 places, 1000 chips start . First hand dealt QQ one seat to the right of button, folded around to me so raised to 150 folded round to big blind ( a solid player ) who calls. Flop comes 10 x x and BB checks, at this stage he looks at his cards and i see him expose AK ( i would turn away normaly - honest ). So decision time. I know the odds of him beating me are aprox. 1 in 4 ( forget backdoors etc ) and the pot is at 330. So Q1 ) Exactly how much do i bet ? The things i presume i must consider are, odds of winning, how much can i get him to put into the pot and finally ( the main point of my post ) is DO I BET ALL IN AND BE HAPPY SCOOPING IT THERE WITH +330 ( I HAVE TO PRESUME HE WONT CALL IT ) OR DO I BET SAY 200 AND POTENTIALY LOSE THE POT. This is the main point of my post do you go for a definite smaller pot or do you increase your risk a little and try scoop a bigger one at this stage of the tourny. I ask this as i am constanly asking myself this type of question and would like to what other people's opinions are on this. If it makes any differnce i would have probably bet about 200 and tried to win it there but not have been overly upset had he called. :) | ||
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| Re: Safe small pot vs risky big one, Sitare, 16. Oct 2002 08:49 | ||
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| on 15. Oct 2002 09:30 RickyK wrote: > Hello first real post to this site apologies if it seems a tad bizzare but.. > > In a $100 no limit tourny, 100 runners, 10 places, 1000 chips start . > First hand dealt QQ one seat to the right of button, folded around to me so > raised to 150 folded round to big blind ( a solid player ) who calls. > Flop comes 10 x x and BB checks, at this stage he looks at his cards and i see > him expose AK ( i would turn away normaly - honest ). > > So decision time. I know the odds of him beating me are aprox. 1 in 4 ( forget > backdoors etc ) and the pot is at 330. > > So Q1 ) Exactly how much do i bet ? The things i presume i must consider are, > odds of winning, how much can i get him to put into the pot and finally ( the > main point of my post ) is DO I BET ALL IN AND BE HAPPY SCOOPING IT THERE WITH > +330 ( I HAVE TO PRESUME HE WONT CALL IT ) OR DO I BET SAY 200 AND POTENTIALY > LOSE THE POT. he has 6 outs (not considering runner runner Q,J nor any flush draws) 6 out of 45 so assuming you will fold if he hits (since you sit infront of him you cant expect any free cards) you need to bet more than (330+2x)= 7,5x X = 60 = your bet for it to be advantagous for you . Of course some people dont like to bet without any overlay, and in this cae one doesent have to, maybe you will get better opportunities later, factor this in, and bet what you think he would call. if you bet 200 odds are he will fold assuming it is not a freeroll or something, maybe try 145 or a discount number like that. :) > > This is the main point of my post do you go for a definite smaller pot or do > you increase your risk a little and try scoop a bigger one at this stage of the > tourny. > I ask this as i am constanly asking myself this type of question and would > like to what other people's opinions are on this. > If it makes any differnce i would have probably bet about 200 and tried to win > it there but not have been overly upset had he called. > > :) | ||
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| Re: Safe small pot vs risky big one, JJKerr, 18. Oct 2002 07:17 | ||
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| I would bet just enough to make him pay a better than good price (I think I'm a forigner or something) Make him pay a good price (that means high) going all in is wrong ... if the pot has 300+ in it ... you must protect your hand against his ace king but also you want him call a stiff wager... I would bet more than the pot say 400. You want him to call at the wrong price. Let me say that it is key that he doesn't draw out on you ... it will cost you all your chips. You don't want him to call... but if he does you want to get a good price I think a more than the pot ... and if the turn misses you bet the rest. It is early in the tournament ... I don't know what your betting structure is you know on paradise it starts at 5-10 so the pot would be less and you would bet differently (less but same proportion) Cya 40sac | ||
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| Re: Safe small pot vs risky big one, JJKerr, 18. Oct 2002 07:34 | ||
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| Going all in could be a good play too. there is a chance he will think that there is a possibility he has the better hand (it's hard to think that w/ a 10 on board) but he could read your all in as A(Q) And may like his outs so most loose players in most situations will make a big call w/ AK and lose to you. It is something to consider... but this play is wrong when the stakes are small in the beginning. Like a Paradise structure Yo Im out JJ John 1:1-13 | ||
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| Re: Safe small pot vs risky big one, jon seal, 20. Oct 2002 00:59 | ||
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| Ricky , when you see someones cards strategy becomes a lot more simple. In this case you must realise that it is early in the tourny and you need to protect your bank roll , so an all-in call is definitely not appropriate as it might be later in the tourny. As you will know whether he draws or not you should play as a cash game and offer odds just outside his implied odds ( eg he is 7 to 1 on drawing Aor K on the turn so a small bet of $120 would be sufficient ) For the river card again offer odds just outside his implied odds ( now about $200) At the showdown , just a small bet ( $100) might tempt him into thinking your bluffing. All in all this will gain you ($420) extra 3 times out of 4 and losing the original $330 and whatever you bet when he hits his AorK 1 in 4 times. TOTAL PROFIT= $1750 approx. over 4 hands Compare this to an all-in bet over 4 hands = $1280 This is assuming he folds to an all-in bet which anyone but a mad man would early in a tourny with Ace high even with King kicker. Obviously later in the tourny this might not be the case and an all-in bet would become more attractive. The above also does not take into account the rare other hands that might arrise , eg Q on the turn or straight draws. But most of these you can manipulate to your own advantage. The main point of seeing someones hole cards is that you can be certain of the odds always offering value bets that are incorrect for your opponent to call and that you will not have to worry about any reverse implied odds that would normally cloud your thinking. A long post to get over just a few points , I need some more concise english practice. | ||
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| Re: Safe small pot vs risky big one, JJKerr, 22. Oct 2002 18:51 | ||
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| I just think that you want to take the pot right now preferably w/ a large bet in that situation. If you temp him to draw w/ that hand you could lose the whole pot (Very easily) to gain 320. That is a viable strategy but I think a larger bet could gain more and will dramatically increase him folding. And also he might feel strongly about calling that med-large bet w/ AK. Don't you understand the overiding factor of survival in tournament play? But I do like the small bet you suggest I admit. It is a lower risk of chips. But I just think it is more profitable to get him to lay that threat down or else make him pay. He will still have a break even desision in his mind figuring his outs combined w/ possibly having the best hand. It is very easy for him to hit his overcards and I would want him to fold or eliminate himself. You either go big or small. But if you go small he is drawing painlessly and you don't want your QQs to go down in flames surrendering the pot. He might call the stiff wager and miss. But if he does call he will feel commited on the river to call a similar wager to edge you out w/ AK. Thats just my opinion I could be wrong Yo I'm out The Jayster | ||
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| Re: Safe small pot vs risky big one, Andy Glazer, 22. Oct 2002 20:52 | ||
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| on 20. Oct 2002 00:59 jon seal wrote, amongst other smart things: << Ricky , when you see someones cards strategy becomes a lot more simple. (snip) > The main point of seeing someones hole cards is that you can be certain of the odds always offering value bets that are incorrect for your opponent to call and that you will not have to worry about any reverse implied odds that would normally cloud your thinking.>> This is certainly an odd situation, because like most players (at least I hope like most players), I try to avoid peering at opponent hole cards, but sometimes someone is just going to flash them so obviously that even if you're trying to do the right thing, you get the information. So it's a worthwhile discussion for those rare occasions, and I think Jon is correct. When you know your opponent's hand, I think there are considerably fewer arguments in favor of risking your whole stack, at least until you reach a point where your opponent is drawing awfully thin but still might call. I would much rather take the risk that I lose a small pot I could have bought with a bet, rather than risking my entire stack at this stage. I would work the player a bit at a time, and of course can then get away from the hand if he hits his ace or king. If he reads my small bet as weakness and pushes in on me, then of course I'm playing, because I'm in good enough shape for a double up to risk my whole stack. BTW, this is my first visit to UPF, and I wish those involved success. There is room in poker for more than one discussion forum (or, for that matter, room for more than two). Andy Glazer | ||
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| Re: Safe small pot vs risky big one, RickyK, 29. Oct 2002 06:03 | ||
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| Too be honest it was more a hypothetical question. My point was how to judge what kind of ammount the bet should be. I guess what i need to take out of this was the fact that survival is the overiding factor to tourny play ! I still though have a nagging doubt about the survival theory.Surely at some point in every tourny ( be it 100 runners paying 3 places or 50 runners paying 5 ) you have to take a risk and gamble your chips. Is this not best to do when you have a really good situation ( such as going all in on the above example ) ? I remeber reading somewhere some guy talking about how he would fold pocket A's in certain condtions in tourny's ( and the math backed him up) but i guess my greatest flaw in the game would be i am too risk averse!!! Oh well good for you guys i guess !! | ||
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