|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 2/11/2012 2:03:55 PM PACIFIC |
 Poker Stat Inquiry of Mike, blachjakk, 3. Oct 2002 16:58 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Hey mike, I recently came accross one of your older articles : http://www.planetpoker.com/mcu/library/articles&columns/mc_ac_numbergamblers.htm About how many professional poker players you believe there are. I have been playing at Planet for years and when i recenly started a project for my Insurance Class in college I found myself in need of some gambling statistics. With some lobbying on my part, i was able to convince my partner to try to help me create Professional Gambling Insurance for our big whoopteeedoo-in-class presentation. But my question for you is, where could i look to find information on how many professional Blackjack Players, Poker Players, and Sports Bettors there are in the US or even elsewhere. I know i'm going to have to do some extrapolating and educated guessing to get the numbers that I want, but I have been searching hte net for days and have only come accross your article which even begins to try and ask the question of how many gamblers are out there. Any help or direction you or anyone else out there could give me would be greatly appreciated. Thanks, Blachjakk p.s. I Love the Site! | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Poker Stat Inquiry of Mike, Mike Caro, 3. Oct 2002 19:16 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 3. Oct 2002 16:58 blachjakk wrote: > Hey mike, I recently came accross one of your older articles : > > http://www.planetpoker.com/mcu/library/articles&columns/mc_ac_numbergamblers.ht > m > > About how many professional poker players you believe there are. I have been > playing at Planet for years and when i recenly started a project for my > Insurance Class in college I found myself in need of some gambling statistics. > With some lobbying on my part, i was able to convince my partner to try to help > me create Professional Gambling Insurance for our big whoopteeedoo-in-class > presentation. But my question for you is, where could i look to find > information on how many professional Blackjack Players, Poker Players, and > Sports Bettors there are in the US or even elsewhere. I know i'm going to have > to do some extrapolating and educated guessing to get the numbers that I want, > but I have been searching hte net for days and have only come accross your > article which even begins to try and ask the question of how many gamblers are > out there. > > Any help or direction you or anyone else out there could give me would be > greatly appreciated. > > Thanks, > Blachjakk > > p.s. I Love the Site! Hi, Blachjakk -- The best I can do is repeat a short article I wrote for Chuck Weinstock's Intelligent Gambler newsletter three years ago. Hope this helps and that it stimulates discussion here. The article is below... Straight Flushes, Mike Caro HOW MANY AMERICANS REALLY MAKE A LIVING GAMBLING? from Mike Caro "America's Mad Genius" Why is it that every time I agree to do an interview, the questions are the same? For instance: When was the first time you played poker? Who cares? I mean, let's be honest -- I don't even remember that first time. I was a little kid, for godsakes. What interviewers should really ask is: What didn't you know the first time you played poker that would have prevented you from getting kicked in the ass? Truthfully, I don't remember that, either; but I can speculate. The first time I played poker, I didn't know that you weren't supposed to try to win the pot. I mean, it just seems obvious when you're a little kid that winning the pot is what poker is all about. Unfortunately, most casual players bring this little-kid attitude to the tables as adults. If you went to the table the first time knowing that you'll get paid in the long run for making quality decisions, knowing that throwing a hand away (and surrendering any chance at the pot) actually can put money in your pocket, you'd be successful almost immediately. What else didn't I know in that first poker game when I was a little kid? Let's see. Oh, I didn't know that anyone actually played poker for a living. I probably thought it was a game of luck, like Old Maid. So, here's the really intelligent question I've never been asked: How many Americans make their living gambling? Many millions, if you define gambling as the art of taking chances, including business ventures. But that's not what you mean. You mean games of chance and formal bets on the outcome of events. First, let's qualify this by specifying that not everyone who is money ahead from this sort of gambling is making a living at it. I'll exclude two categories: (1) Those who are currently ahead, but whose results are luck based and who can't expect to win regularly in the future; (2) Those who are skillful enough to win and augment their incomes gambling, but not by enough to make a living from it. So, now -- under that definition, how many American's make their living gambling? Well, wait! Do you we include those that are on the business side of legalized gambling, such as casino owners and even employees? No, we're not talking about them; we'll only count players who make their living beating the casinos, players who make their living beating other players, gamblers who make their living on winning bets on the outcome of events, or gamblers who combine any of those. Are we ready now? I guess not, because we need to define what a living is. Does it mean not working, but barely scraping enough to get to the tables while begging food and sleeping in the back of a car? No, not in this definition. To qualify, let's say a gambler must make at least half as much as he would if he held the job he'd otherwise hold and must make a minimum of $30,000 a year gambling. There, now -- even though we still have things to quibble about -- we can work with this definition. To sum it up, I'm about to tell you how many adult Americans win and have a winning expectation of at least $30,000 a year, that sum being at least half of what they could earn if they chose another profession, who are primarily involved in formalized wagers or games of chance (as opposed to taking business risks) and who are not benefiting from the casino's side of it. We will also exclude illegal bookies, considering them to be more like casinos with a built-in edge. Here's the over/under: 32,813. Don't ask me how we got that number, just some rough estimates here and some wild speculation there. But, I think it's very accurate. In other words, I'm saying there are just as likely to be 32,812 or fewer American gamblers earning a living as there are to be 32,814 or more. If that sounds like a large number, just keep in mind that it means fewer than one in 5,000 adults makes a living gambling. But let's break this figure down some more. How many of these don't cheat? Answer 19,124 (again a ridiculously exact number arrived at by compromise). Repeating, there are only about 19,124 honest gamblers earning a living in the United States under my previously explained definition. That means, of the estimated 32,813 total gamblers making a living, only 58 percent make that living honestly. The rest have various schemes or angles going for them. This includes some blackjack players who go against the house, although the vast majority of these do so honestly -- if you consider counting cards as honest. I do; casino management sometimes doesn't. But let's take poker. First of all, of that 32,813 gamblers making a living in America, how many are primarily poker players? OK, you want another over/under, here it comes: 18,100. How many are totally honest in the way they exact this living? It's 6,914. That means 62 percent of American poker players making a living are scamming. Why so high a number of cheats? First, you should know that the figures are probably similar for other card games for which there are a far fewer numbers of professionals. Gin rummy and hearts come to mind. There is also a considerable amount of cheating in games like backgammon. Since poker is an easy game to beat through skill, why would more players choose to beat it through cheating, instead? Interesting question, but there's a profound and powerful answer. More players do NOT choose to earn a living at poker by cheating. By far the majority of players capable of earning a living at poker are strongly opposed to cheating. The reason the percentages are as stated is simple: Honest poker players with great skill seldom win when they end up unknowingly in games where unscrupulous poker players with lesser skills cheat. The result is that the original pool of potential players who could make their living at poker is overpopulated with predators. Why am I telling you this? I'm telling you so that, assuming you're an honest gambler and especially if you're an honest poker player, you can redouble your vigilance. Don't play in games where you worry about being cheated. Even if the game turns out to be totally honest, you will waste valuable mental energy on your concern that you're being scammed. When that happens, you don't have your full mental faculties available to make best-quality strategic decisions. As many of you know, I've fought against unethical poker practices for over 20 years. I even had an independent office at the Bicycle Club Casino near Los Angeles when it opened in 1984. Players were invited to report any facts or suspicious to my Cheater Monitoring Service. You can still bring scams, unethical behavior, and poker partnerships to my attention by e-mailing caro@caro.com. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Poker Stat Inquiry of Mike, blachjakk, 4. Oct 2002 05:03 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Thanks for your relpy, That was actually the article i came accross in my search. You were the only one I could find that even attempted to tackle the question. Mind if I ask how you postulated some of those numbers? Would i be able to find information on how many pro-gamblers there are in Las Vegas even? I just need some sort of starting point from which i can start extrapolatiing, and as of right now i have none :( Its np if you can't help, I know you tried and I appreciate that much. ~blachjakk | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Poker Stat Inquiry of Mike, Mike Caro, 5. Oct 2002 06:49 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 4. Oct 2002 05:03 blachjakk wrote: > Thanks for your relpy, That was actually the article i came accross in my search. You > were the only one I could find that even attempted to tackle the question. Mind if I ask > how you postulated some of those numbers? Would i be able to find information on how many > pro-gamblers there are in Las Vegas even? I just need some sort of starting point from > which i can start extrapolatiing, and as of right now i have none :( > Its np if you can't help, I know you tried and I appreciate that > much. ~blachjakk Hi, Blachjakk -- Unfortunately, my numbers weren't based on any reliable data. There is none that I'm aware of. All I did was subjectively try to estimate, based on my experience in the gambling world, and to come up with numbers that I would personally be willing to book a standard 11-to-10 over/under bet and not care which side anyone chose. Sorry I can't be more useful in this regard. Straight Flushes, Mike Caro | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network | Find Vancouver Businesses |
|