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Server Time: 12/3/2008 9:18:34 PM PACIFIC |
 Bad Beat Jackpots, kunjay, 21. Sep 2002 16:17 | ||
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| What are the odds of a Bad Beat Jackpot going off? The usual of Aces full of Kings or better getting beaten. Do the odds change as the games change? If so what are the odds for the different games? Texas, Omaha, 5 Stud, 7 stud, Draw? | ||
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| Re: Bad Beat Jackpots, Andrew Wells, 22. Sep 2002 22:00 | ||
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| I remember a Card Player or Poker Digest article last year that covered this. Maybe someone here will dig through the back issues and find it. But I don't find such odds to be meaningful, because not everyone is going to take a hand like (6s 8s) Ts to sixth street against an open pair just incase both players hit perfect. I'm not going to get involved with every pocket pair hoping to hit quads. Calculated odds will only assume all hands go to showdown, and that's not how poker is played. What good is it to know that you have a .000125% chance of hitting the jackpot starting with big slick in hold'em? Ask the floor manager how often the various games jackpots are hit, and what percentage of the drop goes to the main pot, first reserve, and second reserve. There's no way to time it such that you'll be playing at a table with a jackpot that's "due to hit". The due theory is fallacy. It's easiest to hit one playing Omaha, and that's why you'll usually find quads or better as a qualifier there. A rough estimate based on observation alone would be once a month for a single Omaha-8 table going 24/7 with quads or better to qualify. I'd rank the other games with aces full of kings to qualify (from easiest to hardest) as follows: Hold'em, Draw, Stud-8, Stud. I could be wrong about Draw. | ||
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